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Manmohan Singh's peace gamble: vision confronts reality (Comment)

Category :India Sub Category :National
2009-08-01 00:00:00
   Views : 314

The same impression is conveyed by Pakistani objections to the proposed American 'surge' in the anti-Taliban operations in Afghanistan since this can lead to the influx of terrorists into Balochistan and elsewhere in Pakistan. Their arrival will compound the situation for the army because it is unwilling to move its troops from the Indian border to fight the internal menace.

It is this suspicion of dualism which probably made Manmohan Singh express the hope that the 'leadership in Pakistan will have the courage to defeat those who want to destroy peace'. His reference may not have been only to the terrorists but also to their backers in the military and ISI.

At the same time, the resultant uncertainty about whether it is worthwhile to negotiate with those who do not have real authority in Pakistan explains the prime minister's remark that while he shares Vajpayee's 'vision', he also feels 'his frustration in dealing with Pakistan'.

Although this is the fundamental difficulty of interacting with Pakistan, it is a point not raised by parties like the BJP because it will dilute their criticism of the government and the prime minister's supposed weakness, on which it is again focussing even though this line of attack was of no help to it in the elections.

If, on his part, Manmohan Singh was able to dispel much of the misgivings about delinking acts of terrorism from resumption of the dialogue, this could not be said about the reference to Balochistan in the document even if it was due to bad drafting, as Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon conceded.

But if Pakistan believes that allegations of Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing's (RAW) involvement in Balochistan will balance the Indian charges against ISI, it is still a kind of self-goal for Islamabad because it underlines the prevalence of serious unrest in a large province a la the former East Pakistan before 1971.

Whether RAW is funneling funds to the Balochistan Liberation Army or not, as a well-known Pakistani television journalist, Hamid Mir, has mentioned in a recent article, Baloch separatism is another indication of Pakistan's fragility, which is also exemplified by the continuing influence of the Islamic fundamentalists in the north-west.

India's willingness, therefore, to talk to Pakistan if it can rein in terrorism not only entails propping up the somewhat more dependable civilian leadership vis-a-vis the military and ISI for the sake of peace but also to ensure that the latter's flirting with religious extremists does not further destabilise the failing state.

(01-08-2009 - Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be reached at aganguli@mail.com)




Author :Amulya Ganguli



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