New Delhi, Aug 26 - The biggest threat to the Indian economy is drought that will bring down growth to 6.2 percent this fiscal, says the research arm of global consultancy Moody's.
'GDP growth in 2009 will be mildly slower than in 2008, followed by a notable acceleration in the subsequent three years. India's GDP growth for fiscal 2009-2010 is forecast to slow to 6.2 percent,' Moody's Economy.com said in a statement Wednesday.
'Having survived the global recession, which has turned out to be only a mild drag on India's economic performance, the emerging powerhouse is now facing a new threat,' Sherman Chan, economist with Moody's Economy.com said Wednesday.
'As a number of regions have already declared their drought status, the quantity and quality of crops will certainly decline this year, significantly hurting the agricultural sector,' Chan said.
'The drought is clearly taking the steam out of India's growth momentum, and another emerging concern is food price inflation. Unlike general commodities, food prices in India have not retreated despite weaker global demand.'
According to Moody's, as agricultural output accounts for less than a fifth of India's GDP, the drought may have only a limited impact on the overall recovery. However, as two-third of the population depended on farm income, it could have widespread ramifications.