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Advantage Congress in coming assembly polls

Category :India Sub Category :National,Politics
2009-09-05 00:00:00
   Views : 720

Even before the dust has settled after the parliamentary elections, political parties have to gear up for another round of polls next month. Nor are they of marginal importance. The assembly elections in at least one of the three states - Maharashtra - is of high importance as virtually all such contests are in that crucial state.

Of the other two states, Haryana's significance lies in demonstrating the electoral mood in northern India, and especially among major communities like the Jats. Only Arunachal Pradesh is less in focus, mainly because of its distance from the national capital, but the outcome is still of importance if only because it will show which of the two national parties - the ruling Congress and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - is ahead.

Maharashtra, however, is the real testing ground for these two parties because they are fairly closely placed in terms of seats and voting percentages. Although the ruling Congress has its nose ahead at present, mainly because of the continuing tremors in the Hindutva camp, it will undoubtedly keep its fingers crossed.

Notwithstanding the jump by the Congress in the number of parliamentary seats from Maharashtra to 17 this time from 13 in 2004 , there has been a fairly steep drop in its vote share to 19.6 percent from 23.7 percent. This decline has left it only one percentage point ahead of the BJP although it, too, experienced a drop to 18.1 percent from 22.6 percent and won nine seats against 13 in 2004.

The Congress's ally, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), did not fare too well either. Its tally of Lok Sabha seats fell to eight from nine, although its voting percentage went up to 19.2 percent from 18.3.

Similarly, the BJP's ally, the Shiv Sena, lost one seat - 11 this time against 12 in 2004 - and three percentage points, from 20.1 percent to 17 percent. However, these trends show that there isn't a wide gap between the two groups. The difference, for instance, between the number of assembly segments in the parliamentary poll won by the Congress and the NCP this year is only eight more than what was won by the BJP and the Shiv Sena - 130 to 122.

It is common knowledge in Maharashtra that the success of the Congress-NCP combine was mainly due to the inroads made into the saffron vote bank by the breakaway Navnirman Sena of Raj Thackeray, who is Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray's estranged nephew. Had the Sena been united, it would have given the Congress-NCP a run for its money.

However, since the division in the Sena ranks remains, the Congress and the NCP can breathe a sigh of relief - if they themselves do not break up over seat sharing.




Author :Amulya Ganguli



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